Import and export: Waiting for opportunities in the second half of the year

Commodity exports are forecast to face many difficulties in the second quarter, when the epidemic is still complicated. However, the opportunity to achieve the target of 7-8% growth as planned is still there if market opportunities are taken advantage of.

Import and export turnover fell sharply

In the context of many textile and garment products facing difficulties due to the delay and relaxation of orders, masks are the "salvation" of textile enterprises. 400 million medical masks is the quantity in the order that the Garment 10 Corporation signed with its delivery partner in July. In addition to the medical mask order, May 10 also received orders from Germany and the US for export. antibacterial fabric pages, a total of more than 20 million pieces.

May 10 is one of the businesses that have succeeded in redirecting products in line with market signals, contributing to export growth in the context of the Covid-19 epidemic that has made this activity difficult. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, if in the first quarter, Vietnam's import and export activities have not been affected much by the Covid-19 pandemic, in the second quarter, this activity will face many challenges, especially the economy. Our country's economy has a large openness, so it is influenced by many aspects because the international economic situation before the development of the Covid-19 epidemic is increasingly complicated and unpredictable.

Specifically, the epidemic in many markets in Europe, the United States, ASEAN and the Middle East has not been controlled, and the application of measures to restrict travel continues to affect the import and export activities of Vietnam. Vietnam. Since March, the world has entered a pandemic phase with a dangerously rapid spread, governments of countries are promulgating disease control measures such as temporarily closing entry and exit, restricting gatherings, buying food, etc. Crowded shopping, restricting the operation of trade centers... making the demand for buying and selling consumer goods such as: textiles and footwear, wooden furniture... in many markets decrease.

In particular, the decline in commodity prices also greatly affected the export activities of Vietnam. For example, in the first 4 months of 2020, the export price of cashew kernels decreased by 12.9% over the same period in 2019, coffee decreased by 2.2%, tea decreased by 13.1%, pepper decreased by 19%. In particular, as of April 27, 2020, the price of WTI crude oil has plummeted 77.3% (equivalent to a decrease of $53.46/barrel) compared to the beginning of 2020, to $15.72/barrel.. affects the export of Vietnamese goods.

According to estimates, Vietnam's export turnover in April 2020 is estimated at 19.7 billion USD, down sharply by 18.4% compared to March 2020 and down 3.5% over the same period in 2019.

Export turnover of most commodity groups decreased compared to March 2020. In which, the group of processed industrial products fell the most, down 20% compared to the previous month, estimated at 16.4 billion USD. Export turnover of fuel and mineral products also decreased by 18.6% compared to March 2020, reaching 247 million USD. Export turnover of agricultural and aquatic products decreased by 6.6% compared to March 2020, estimated at 2.02 billion USD.

Generally, in the first four months of 2020, Vietnam's merchandise export turnover was estimated at US$82.94 billion, up 4.7% over the same period in 2019 (increasing by 6.5%) in the same period last year.

Regarding imports, the import turnover of April was estimated at 20.4 billion USD, down 7.9% over the previous month, down 2.3% over the same period in 2019. Generally in the first 4 months of 2020, the turnover import of the whole country was estimated at 79.89 billion USD, up 2.1% over the same period (up 10.7% in the same period).

With such import and export situation, in April, Vietnam estimated a trade deficit of 700 million USD. Generally, in the first four months of 2020, the trade balance continued to have a trade surplus of 3.04 billion USD, much higher than the surplus of 983 million USD in the first 4 months of 2019.

Waiting for opportunities from FTAs

Thus, after achieving quite positive growth in the first quarter of 2020, Vietnam's trade activities in April 2020 began to be strongly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The negative effects of the Covid-19 epidemic are expected to have a clearer impact on Vietnam's trade activities in the second quarter of 2020 because from mid-March 2020 until now, the disease has seriously affected. to Vietnam's major trading partner markets, namely the US, EU, and Japan. However, if the epidemic is controlled in the second quarter of 2020, it is expected that exports will increase again in the second half of the year and continue to be the main growth engine of the Vietnamese economy in 2020 thanks to consumer demand. Consumption in the world increased again plus competitive advantages when the EVFTA Agreement officially took effect.

In addition, globally, many economies have launched large-scale stimulus packages in response to the negative impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the economy. Most countries have increased fiscal spending to deal with the epidemic, maintain essential economic activities and support workers. In Vietnam, the Government and ministries and agencies have also been trying to implement many solutions to remove difficulties for businesses due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic.

Currently, the situation of controlling and controlling the Covid-19 epidemic in China and Korea has positive results; other countries are also trying to control the epidemic... so demand is forecasted to gradually increase again in the near future.

Many countries have gradually reopened their economies in the context of the ongoing fight against the Covid-19 epidemic. For example, Italy will start allowing the manufacturing industry to resume operations from May 4 in a plan to ease the blockade and